Capello is looking for a draw in Croatia.And he played Beckham in that 2-2 draw against the Czech Republic because of the Olympics.
That's my take on England in August-September.
We expected Capello to be ruthless and no respecter of reputations.We thought he would build his own team and waste no time in doing it. Instead, he's using the same players as Sven and the Sven-lite of FC Twente.
Last month's surprise must have been the decision of FA and the sponsors : Beckham is huge in Asia and the Olympics was in China for the first time and he was part of the handover ceremony which signalled that the 2012 Olympics will be in London. I didn't see the closing ceremony but I'm told Beckham arrived in an open-topped red London bus, waving the flag.
Given that, maybe the FA thought it best to play the superstar v Czech Republic, so they leaned on Fabio.
Before Berlusconi gave Capello the job as coach of AC Milan, he brought him into his company to give him training and to see how organisations work. I don't know any details on that part of his career. I've only met Capello once, when Arsenal played Milan in the Super Cup, and he was quite corporate.
Having played Beckham for 90 v Czech Republic, Capello can't then drop him from the squad for these two World Cup qualifying games.
When I first saw the England squad, without Ashley Young and Agbonlahor, and without Owen as a threat from the bench, I laughed. I thought : he's given up, he's not taking it seriously.
Having had time to reflect, I think that squad tells us something.
It's packed with big defenders like Rio Ferdinand, John Terry, Joleon Lescott, Matthew Upson, Wes Brown, Glen Johnson - plus Ashley Cole and Bridge. On top of five experienced guys who could play centreback, he has chosen EIGHT midfielders : Lampard, Joe Cole, Barry, Bullard, Beckham, Bentley, Jenas and Downing. Nine if you count Walcott.
But only 3 strikers : Rooney, Defoe and Heskey.
Capello has had plenty of time to map out his plans for this qualifying campaign. It looks as if he's decided that the strikers will not really be relevant in Zagreb. If they were, Owen and Crouch would be in the squad. On this occasion, winning is not the name of the game.
I reckon Capello sees Croatia in Zagreb as a Champions League away game. When you face technically superior opposition away from home, you have to be realistic. You avoid risks. So he is going to do what Hoddle did in Rome, when he played for the 0-0 that got us to France 98. Ian Wright chased defenders ferociously, and Gascoigne rose to the occasion with a masterclass of keep-ball in a stadium where he had been a star with Lazio.
England have no Gazza now, nobody with that authority, that vision, that panache and swagger. Gazza could no longer run, of course. But he was able to walk and jog and shuffle and pass and lead England to the most crucial 0-0 draw in their World Cup history.
That's what I think: Capello will use Andorra as a practice game and beat them 2-0 or 3-0. Before and during Andorra, he will work on shape and pressing before Croatia. He will let Wayne Rooney do what Ian Wright did in Rome in October, 1997 : use his pace and energy to close down defenders. England will try to run down the clock, try to prevent Croatia from playing round them and through them, and work for a 0-0 draw.
My best guess is that Capello will be happy with 4 points from 2 games.
Seems like a decade since I wrote Diamond David Beckham and the bleep test.
In 2003, I used to say that after the 2002 World Cup, Sven had to choose between playing Heskey and playing football. Now, five long years later, I reckon Capello will play Heskey and Rooney in Zagreb.
Could be wrong. We shall soon see.
Time goes by so quickly. I thought it was about two years since I did Newsnight, talking about Sven with Matt Lawton and an MP.
It was in June 2004 that I first noticed that I was losing the ability to be disappointed.
20:50
